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An 88/1 tricast on a super Monday

Considering it was just a Monday I was really looking forward to getting stuck into Plumpton on Monday as my figures felt “right”, the going looked sure to remain as forecast and I just sensed in my bones it was going to be a good day. It was.

For those not currently using my private handicap ratings I have reproduced them below, just so that you can have a look for yourself at how I work. Who knows, you might even like them so much, you join the ever increasing number registering to the fastest growing sports betting and advice website in the country.

 

PLUMPTON 1-40

LOVE OF TARA….+15 – 3RD 20/1

MAVALENTA….+12

MADAME JASMINE….+11 – 2ND 9/2

BUNGALASHA LADY….-6 – WON 9/4

MARIE DEJA LA….-15

THEDEBOFTHEYEAR….-25

MADAM NOSO….-32

TWIN BUD….-32

SAPPHIRE ROUGE….-37

 

THREE TO DUTCH – LOVE OF TARA, MAVALENTA, MADAME JASMINE

20/80 – MADAME JASMINE

EXOTICS – LOVE OF TARA, MAVALENTA, MADAME JASMINE

LAY – TWIN BUD

 

ADVICE – Probably the best of the four rated races from here today. maybe not the most competitivwe though and, with three clear on my numbers I’m happy to put my trust in them. My 20/80 has been selected purely because she is in form, loves this track and ticks all boxes required.

RESULT – The Ratings performed superbly well and whilst nothing but the “80” off the runner up came back, I was extremely happy with how my numbers stacked up.

 

PLUMPTON 2-10

INTHEJUNGLE….+10 – WON 2/1

EVELLA….+9 – 3RD 9/4

BALLYMAN….+9 – 2ND 15/8

SHES HUMBLE….-5

DELGANY GUNNER….-9 – NR

TCHANG GOON….-20 – NR

 

TWO TO DUTCH – INTHEJUNGLE, EVELLA

20/80 – INTHEJUNGLE

EXOTIC – INTHEJUNGLE, EVELLA

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – More than happy with my top rated but the exotics gave me a headache. Last years winner of this race sits third best…joint second really but I have that “criteria” to use once the figures are down and they stack as detailed above. If you prefer to use BALLYMAN, do not let me put you off as he’s sure to be ready for a repeat performance this afternoon. and the one I’ve gone for has pulled up three times from her last six runs.

RESULT – Plain sailing for my top rated but this race was not one I myself got involved in  due to the non-runners. Four horse races will always be suspect as regards pace but, no arguing the figures were spot on and I know from e-mails received that many members were on the easy winner.

 

PLUMPTON 2-40

JUST BEWARE….+2

LADY BRIDGET….+/-0 – 3RD 14/1

LITTLE ROXY….-7 – 2ND 7/2

THE OMEN….-20

THUNDERING HOME….-25

AIREDALE LAD….-26

TOM SANG….-26

MOUNT VESUVIUS….-29

PEINTRE DU ROI….-37

BATHWICK JUNIOR….-40 – WON 10/1

 

THREE TO DUTCH – JUST BEWARE, LADY BRIDGET, LITTLE ROXY

20/80 – JUST BEWARE

EXOTICS – JUST BEWARE, LADY BRIDGET, LITTLE ROXY

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – Probably the trickiest of my four to get a grip of. Only three of these has winning form on soft…rated horses 1, 2 and 5. However, LITTLE ROXY has won on good to soft and heavy plus, placed on two of the three races she has run on soft. It would be seriously pedantic of me to say she doesn’t handle soft. However, if you want to err on the side of “fact” then the tissue favourite, THUNDERING HOME, would be the one to utilise for exotics. I’m thinking about the potential dividend though and whilst staking will not cause many ripples on punting ponds anyway, it’ll pay more if I’m right.

RESULT – Close but, no cigar. I doff my cap to anyone who found the winner of this one using anything other than pure guesswork!

 

PLUMPTON 3-10

PRETTY PENNY….+24

DUSHY VALLEY….+18 – 2ND 11/4

CHANGING LANES….+11

BEWARE CHALK PIT….+9 – WON 10/3

BALLINAHASSIG….-8

LAUGHING GAME….-11 – 3RD 11/1

KAYCEE….-13

QUARTZ DE MONTCEAUX….-14

 

THREE TO DUTCH – DUSHY VALLEY, BEWARE CHALK PIT, LAUGHING GAME

20/80 – DUSHY VALLEY

EXOTICS – DUSHY VALLEY, BEWARE CHALK PIT, LAUGHING GAME

LAY – NONE

 

ADVICE – Here I will be pedantic. the three selected for dutching are all previous winners on soft and whilst the majority of this lot are consistent enough, it’s low grade consistency and I want that two time curse and distance winner sitting second best on my numbers, as my main play. Not a race you would stake your life on solving but competitive enough to make it interesting.

RESULT – Superb! The Ratings I produce are simply the starting blocks and it’s the decision making that comes once those figures are down that are every bit as important. I myself only ever concentrates my efforts on the top six in each rated race. I’m looking there for those horses I believe will be best suited to the race conditions…and those underfoot, too. Here it was easy. The unfortunate thing for me was that DUSHY VALLEY was made to work very hard for his lead and that set things up for the eventual winner. I’m never going to complain about having secured an 88/1 tricast though and that, together with the dutch, “80”, 12/1 exacta and the 13/1 CSF meant a decent profit was banked.

 

OF INTEREST

PENDRA (Plumpton 12-40) – straight win – WON 4/7

KINGS PALACE (Plumpton 3-40) – straight win – WON 9/4

With the run of bad weather it has been seriously difficult to find much by way of successes in this section recently. However, here I enjoyed a couple of very easy winners and, whilst I never advocate punting odds on in novice events. I’m thinking we saw a very decent horse in PENDRA (pictured top), and I cannot wait to see him jump a fence next season.

KINGS PALACE was ultra impressive to watch but before anyone gets carried away here, the next three home were all rags and the favourite never lifted a leg. Watching a horse win by 18 lengths gives you a rosy glow if you are on but never trust form like that, it’ll only ever jump up and bite you on the backside later.

 

 

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