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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/11/12

At last, we have some racing!

Three meetings to take a look at but for sure, the only card that has any quality is that at Newbury.

The following assumptions have been made

NEWBURY – SOFT
TAUNTON – SOFT
UTTOXETER – HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES

If the going alters significantly then simply walk away. I’m not sure it could get much worse at Uttoxeter (might it get better!)

NEWBURY 1-30

OTTO THE GREAT….-6
BATHWICK BRAVE….-8
SHOULD I STAY….-10
IVOR’S KING….-13
KAYFROU….-22
POLARBROOK….-32
AFRICAN GOLD….-33
REGAL APPROACH….-38
BAROQUE MAN….-39
TYCOONS REFLECTION….-40
JOHN’S GEM….-40
FAULTLESS FEELINGS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – OTTO THE GREAT, BATHWICK BRAVE, KAYFROU
20/80 – BATHWICK BRAVE
EXOTICS – OTTO THE GREAT, BATHWICK BRAVE, KAYFROU
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Only two of these has winning form on soft ground. BATHWICK BRAVE being one of them and sitting so high on my figures, will be my principle play in this race. AFRICAN GOLD could be the old fly in the ointment as he’s still unexposed having just three runs on the board and if IVORS KING improves again for the step up in trip then he could well go in again but, he’s palpably better going right handed, three wins from six attempts in that direction, as opposed to one placing from five attempts going left handed.

NEWBURY 2-40

CEDRE BLEU….+8
IONA DAYS….-7
FINE PARCHMENT….-16
RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE….-18
OUR BOMBER HARRIS….-24
TOUR DES CHAMPS….-24
MAGICAL LEGEND….-25
ALVARADO….-26
ROCKABILLY….-35
LAKE LEGEND….-35
SIZING SANTIAGO….-40

20/80 – CEDRE BLEU
EXOTICS – CEDRE BLEU, IONA DAYS, RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
LAY – ALVARADO

ADVICE – I will not bother with a dutch here. I’m thinking it’s probably prudent to trust my figures and just have a nice 20/80 CEDRE BLEU. Twice a course winner and with soft ground no issue, the stable flying, he looks a play. I will not be going nuts with my staking, however as his two previous wins have come in slightly lower class and it’s a competitive little heat.

NEWBURY 3-15

VENDOR….+8
LYVIUS….+4
PECKHAMECHO….-2
EDGARDO SOL….-10
CALL BACK….-16
VALID REASON….-20

ADVICE – I will just have a straight win bet on the only horse in this race with previous winning form on soft, that coming over this course and distance, and with him sitting top of my figures. VENDOR….might have a sneaky exacta with LYVIUS. One thing stops me having a decent little bet though, Alan King is quoted as saying he wants the ground to dry out a little. ROCK ON RUBY won this race last year but I don’t see one of them in this lot.

TAUNTON 2-15

QUADDICK LAKE….-21
GRAFITE….-25
DRAGON’S DEN….-25
BANYAN TREE….-26
TITAN DE SARTI….-30
WELL SHARP….-40
PAINTBALL….-40

ADVICE – Only GRAFITE is a previous winner on soft ground but with everything scoring low on my numbers it is probably a race more for watching than playing. My top rated loves this place and has a squeak but I will be surprised if WELL SHARP turns up. I mentioned recently he could probably be taken on because of ground concerns and it was soft then….they pulled him out. Same again today? If he runs and wins a few eyebrows will be raised, not least here!

TAUNTON 3-25

MUSICAL WEDGE….+8
FOR THE STAFF….+8
WILD GROUND….-16
SOLITARY PALM….-16
THEDREAMSTILLALIVE….-19
BROUSSE EN FEUX….-20
TOP BENEFIT….-25

ADVICE – Again I’m not setting up anything other than a straight win bet FOR THE STAFF. He, of my top two rated, is the only winner on soft, looked good at Chepstow 22 days ago and could well be good enough to win his first ‘chase today. another race not playing high stakes but I’m happy enough with my figures. I’ll have a wee exacta my top two, too.

TAUNTON 3-55

QUEEN’S GROVE….+9
MISS EXHIBITIONIST….+/-0
QUEEN’S BAY….-10
SMILING LADY….-15
BERNISDALE….-28
BUXOM….-37
UMUSTBEJOKING….-40
ILLEGALE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – QUEENS GROVE, MISS EXHIBITIONIS, QUEEN’S BAY
20/80 – QUEEN’S GROVE
EXOTICS – QUEEN’S GROVE, MISS EXHIBITIONIST, QUEEN’S BAY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Low grade and looks best left to the Queens…although the Miss in the middle might have something to say about matters. A low stakes race played as suggested.

UTTOXETER 1-55

AMAZINGREYCE….+4
THENFORD FLYER….-6
GOUGANE….-13
SHARE OPTION….-19
NICENE CREED….-26
MURFREESBORO….-27
FIRST MORNING….-28
GOING NOWHERE FAST….-39
MAJESTIC BULL….-40
MARLENO….-40
BOSANCLIFF….-40
ME FIEN….-40

ADVICE – Not a single runner here has won on heavy ground, we have a Barney Curley runner bottom rated, who land a gamble for the “plot master” just nine days ago, after which he said this was not a horse that would take much racing and if they are not two reasons to not even watch this race, let alone have a bet, I wouldn’t know what were.

UTTOXETER 2-30

STORM ALERT….+14
SAIL AND RETURN….+13
MAXDELAS….+/-0
SAHRATI….-10
AM I BLUE….-15
CANADIAN DREAMER….-15
SERTAO….-15
MARINSKY….-16
AEGEAN DESTINY….-22
TORRAN SOUND….-23
ICEMAN GEORGE….-40

ADVICE – Only two of these have won on heavy, it’s right Mickey Mouse race and all I will do is dutch MAXDELAS and AM I BLUE for pennies. A race to play only if you are miles ahead come 2-30, otherwise go put the kettle on.

OF INTEREST

SUERTE AL SALTO (Taunton 1-05) – straight win
MAJALA (Taunton 1-40) – straight win

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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